"Intelligence Brief: NIE Report on Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program"

Huh...This doesn't sound anything like the spin you hear on the news when they're talking about the NIE...

09 December 2007


he latest U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, released on December 3, confirmed PINR's analyses from 2003 that Iran was likely seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. As PINR stated in 2003, Iran's interest in acquiring nuclear weapons lies in its goal of becoming the dominant state in the Middle East. By gaining a nuclear capability, Iran would have more leverage when dealing with rival countries, such as the United States, Israel and, previously, Iraq. Nuclear weapons would help to solidify regime survival in Tehran, and prevent outside states, such as Israel, from responding effectively to Iranian encroachment in the region.

The NIE, however, also provided information that somewhat contrasted with PINR's 2003 analyses. PINR assessed that the U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan would hasten Iran's attempts to acquire nuclear weapons, since Tehran would consider itself at an increased threat of a U.S. attack and would want to demonstrate itself as a nuclear power to ward off U.S. attempts at "regime change," one of the Bush administration's policies at the time.

Instead, if the intelligence of the NIE is correct, it demonstrates that Iran halted its program in 2003, likely because it perceived a U.S. attack highly probable and did not want to provide Washington with evidence of a nuclear weapon gambit. Furthermore, in 2003 and early 2004, the situation in Iraq was still relatively stable, and Tehran probably perceived a U.S. attack on its nuclear facilities or government a possibility.

Despite these developments, it is clear that Iran has not shelved its goal of acquiring nuclear weapons. In fact, Tehran may be waiting for an outcome in the Iraq and Afghanistan interventions before deciding on whether to continue its weapons program.

In fact, as PINR stated in October 2003 after Iran responded to international pressure and suspended its uranium enrichment program temporarily, suspending its weapons program does not mean that the country will be unable to acquire nuclear weapons; instead, it allows it to continue upon a nuclear research program, ostensibly for civilian purposes, and at a certain point in the future "could quickly weaponize its nuclear energy program and become a nuclear-armed state." In similar language, the NIE found that "Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so."